Best in Show

With less than twenty four hours to until the 80th Academy Awards, here's an overview of the nominations in the major categories, and some hastily made predictions.

Best Picture

Atonement
Michael Clayton
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Atonement has only won one major best picture award in the awards season leading up to the Oscars - the British dominant BAFTAs - and Michael Clayton, while garnering solid critical reviews and the occasional acting award has yet to receive a prize in this category, so the general consensus is that neither of these two films have much of a chance.

There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men have been hailed as the front-runners for this year's race, unlikely as they may seem considering the Academy's penchant for the overblown epic, the triumph of the human spirit over adversity, the smug morality play where villains get their comeuppance. In both these movies, the protagonists are amoral if not immoral, thieves and liars at best, and the so-called villains triumph over their counterparts and finish the movie unpunished by death, and their stories play out against the backdrop of a harsh America. There Will Be Blood has an epic madness in its favour, and an eerie resonance with modern day troubles - though set at the turn of the previous century it is at heart a story of oil, capitalist greed, and the struggle for power between church and state - but the bold, almost histrionic, tale has polarised viewers such that its detractors are as many and as rabid as its supporters. No Country For Old Men lacks the bravura scope and scenery chewing performances, but opts instead for a tight and tense quiet menace in its retelling of a hunter being hunted by a different kind of madness in Javier Bardem's hired killer. Both films are cynical and bleak in its outlook regarding humankind and their cruel interactions, and both have demonstrated a remarkable ability to enthrall - in its use of the American landscape, in its central performances, in its direction - and also to frustrate in their highly different yet highly unsettling and inchoate endings.

Some warn that if votes are split between the above two films, the final film in this field, Juno, stands a chance to win. However, its ostensible subject matter - teenage pregnancy - is played for laughs without little exploration of consequences in reality, and the frenetic use of pop cultural references makes it feel rather forced, particularly at the start of the film, and may alienate the older Academy voters. While it is an enjoyable comedy, it does not seem to have the same depth and vision as the other nominees, and it seems to be punching above its weight, despite being the one and only real box-office hit.

Personal prediction: No Country for Old Men
Should win: No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood

Achievement in directing

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

This is the first time the Coens brothers have been able to be nominated together for the Best Director. They're the favourites, having won pretty much every award out there for directing in the lead-up, including the BAFTA and the Director's Guild. Their only real competition is PT Anderson, but There Will Be Blood is, as mentioned above, a polarising movie; or Schnabel for an interesting adaptation of a seemingly difficult memoirs of a man suffering from 'locked-in syndrome' though it is rare for a director to win when their film is not nominated for Best Picture.

Personal prediction: Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney in The Savages
Ellen Page in Juno

No one liked Elizabeth: The Golden Age, so no matter how good Cate Blanchett was in that movie, there has been no buzz for her in this category. No one saw Laura Linney in The Savages, and despite her excellent body of work, there is a uniformity in the roles she picks, so it is unlikely they will award her for this performance either. Ellen Page is very good in Juno, but the momentum has been behind Cotillard and Christie from the very beginning of the season, the two women splitting most of the major awards in this category (Christie took the Golden Globe for Drama and the Screen Actors Guild, Cotillard the Golden Globe for musical/comedy and the BAFTA). Oscar likes to award women for acting in disguise and generally for pitch-perfect mimicry of famous people and Cotillard has been critically acclaimed for her portrayal of Edith Piaf through all ages of her turbulent life, but Christie has the long-standing admiration for her body of work behind her.

Personal prediction: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Should win: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Performance by an actor in a leading role

George Clooney in Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises

In the Valley of Elah is a movie criticising the Iraq war, and those are not very popular in the States these days. It was also the lesser known Tommy Lee Jones performance this year, so it is unlikely he'll win. Viggo Mortensen's confronting (ahem) performance in Eastern Promises has been much talked about, but has seen very little in the way of actual accolades. George Clooney is consistently good, but his performance in Michael Clayton hasn't garnered particularly strong praise. It will come down to Johnny Depp's anguished Sweeney Todd, wracked with guilt and mad vengeance, and Daniel Day-Lewis' intense portrayal of the disappearing man within the monster.

Personal prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton

Another category of strong performers. The momentum is behind Javier Bardem, whose performance as the calmly psychopathic Anton Chigur is amazing and measured and frightening, and I would be very surprised if he did not win. However, a lot of critical acclaim has been shown to both Affleck, and Holbrook, though both performances featured in films that again were incredibly polarising. There is also an argument that Affleck's Robert Ford is hardly a supporting role.

Personal prediction: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan in Atonement
Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

An interesting category and seemingly one of the most unpredictable of this year. There has been no real front-runner, with Tilda Swinton winning the BAFTA, Cate Blanchett winning the Golden Globe, and Ruby Dee winning the Screen Actor's Guild. Almost all are playing unlikeable characters - Blanchett as an incarnation of Bob Dylan during a difficult stage of his career, Ronan as the precocious sister who tears two lovers apart, Ryan as a drug addicted mother, and Swinton as a uptight unstable lawyer; only Dee plays a 'good' mother and mother. It will probably come down to Dee, who is only onscreen for a brief minutes long performance (though precedent has been set by Judy Dench's tiny winning performance as Queen Elizabeth in Shakespeare in Love), and Blanchett, who not only manages to convince as a man, and Bob Dylan no less, in another short performance.

personal prediction: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
should win: no idea!

If you've managed to read down to here, you probably also deserve an award! Good luck with your own tipping, and here's to hours of overblown speeches, odd musical performances (THREE songs from Enchanted, really?), upsets, and hopefully some sharply observed laughs from host Jon Stewart.